Sep 2015

September 2015

In summary - the forecast indicates dry conditions but not as much as was forecasted in the previous year.

Low rainfall

The rainy summer season in Letaba and Luvuvhu usually provides an increasing amount of rainfall, with a peak around January-February.

For Luvhuvhu and Letaba, the highest seasonal forecast indicates higher rainfall than what normally occurs for the period September 2015 to February 2016 with the middle and the lowest forecasts show below normal. All the forecasts show lower amounts especially in January.

High soil moisture deficit

For Letaba and Luvuvhu, the soil moisture deficit usually decreases as the rainy season progresses as the water reserves in the soil fill.  Then the soil moisture content starts to decrease again around March. Both for Letaba and Luvuvhu, the estimated soil moisture availability is forecasted to be lower than normal for the period September to February. The the forecast with the lowest deficits shows normal soil moisture conditions except for the months of January and February, and especially so for January where forecasts predict rainfall much lower than normal. The median and the higher moisture deficits show much drier soils from November to February.

Low river runoff

For both Letaba and Luvhuvhu the river runoff shows rather normal amounts in the highest and middle forecasts through to December afterwhich it drops quite drastically in January and recovers to higher yet still lower than normal amounts in February. The lowest forecasts shows lower than normal for the whole period, September to February again with a drop though less dramatic one in January.

All files with respect to September 2015 are collected here.

The forecasts are compiled here:

• All data