Nov 2014
Summary
In summary – the forecast indicates dry conditions and indigenous knowledge indicated normal (no signs) or dry conditions. From sensor data, no soil moisture increase or signs of start of the rainfall season were indicated in the end of November.
Low rainfall
The rainy summer season in Letaba and Luvuvhu usually provides an increasing amount of rainfall, with a peak around January-February.
Both for Letaba and Luvuvhu, seasonal forecasts indicate significantly lower amounts rainfall than what normally occurs for the whole period September 2014 to April 2015. Even the forecast which provides the highest rainfall amounts indicates a rainfall slightly below normal. The forecast that shows the lowest amounts indicates extremely dry conditions.
High soil moisture deficit
For Letaba and Luvuvhu, the soil moisture deficit is usually decreasing during summer due to that the soil infiltrates rainfall. Then the soil moisture content starts to decrease again around March.
Both for Letaba and Luvuvhu, the estimated soil moisture availability is predicted to be lower than normal for the whole period for which forecasts are available (April 2015, although the forecast with the lowest soil moisture deficits shows normal or even slightly wetter soil moisture conditions than normal in until February. The median and even more so the driest of the five forecast show extremely high soil moisture deficits.
Low river runoff
In Luvuvhu the river runoff is predicted to be normal to be below normal from December to the end of the period for which seasonal forecasts are available.
The forecast of low river runoff is especially severe for Luvuvhu, where also the highest of the five forecasts predicts far below normal river runoff from December and forwards.
Data
All files with respect to November 2014 are collected here.
The forecasts are compiled here:
